Remember the El Niño from 1997 and 2015? It’s likely back, and experts expect the remainder of the year to be warmer and rainier than usual.

3 Takeaways:

• El Niño is a climate phenomenon that increases storm activity in the Southwest.
• The warming of the sea surface in the Pacific can bring severe heat and heavy rainfall, among other extreme weather impacts. 
• Effects of El Niño should arrive in the southwestern part of the U.S. this summer, potentially lasting through February. 

It might officially be time to make sure you and your loved ones are prepared for the approaching “Super” El Niño. 

El Niño, an occurrence of higher sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, got its name back in the 1600s, when Peruvian fishermen first reported warm water in the Pacific Ocean, which was unusual for the time. Back in those days, they used the full name, El Niño de Navidad, because generally the phenomenon peaks around the holidays in December. 

Fast-forward a few centuries, and today weather experts and officials call it simply El Niño. 

A “super” El Niño occurs when the average temperature of the sea surface in the eastern Pacific increases by 2º Celsius or more. The temperature shift in the ocean water creates a disruptive weather pattern across the globe. 

El Niño reduces the strength of hurricanes that originate in the Atlantic Ocean while increasing storm activity in the Pacific Ocean. The weather phenomenon is responsible for crop damage, flooding, high winds and other severe weather impacts across the U.S. and around the world, and it can last almost a year—sometimes longer, depending on the severity.

In 2023 and 2024, El Niño made an appearance, but it was not as powerful as in previous years, particularly 1997, 1998, 2015 and 2016. 

Some of us may be able recall strong El Niño–related storms here in Valley of the Sun in 1957, 1972, 1982 and 1991.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is expected to return this summer, potentially bringing severe heat and flooding to Arizona. Experts estimate that once El Niño arrives, it will linger for a few months, potentially extending until February 2027. 

Weather forecasters and experts have yet to officially announce how severe El Niño will be this year. El Niño doesn’t guarantee extreme heat or flooding rains. Still, it can strengthen the storms associated with our summer monsoon season, so families should begin taking precautions and preparing for the uncertainty El Niño can bring. 

Locally, the Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community houses the Office of the Emergency Manager, located within the Salt River Fire Department. The office began in 2007 and takes an all-hazard approach, meaning trained staff can help families focus on actions to take to handle any crisis, whether it’s natural (weather) or human-caused (active threats or power failure). 

Those unsure of which steps to take in case of a weather-related emergency may contact SRPMIC Emergency Manager Charles Kmet at (480) 362-7927.